You've probably heard it mentioned by or about some top trader or hedge fund manager -- how they use a "proprietary" method, algorithm or even "black box" to give them an edge in the market. This creates the appeal of the unknown. It's a hint of mystery that can often have as much power as the tool itself.
But we don't do things that way. The socionomic insight is powerful indeed. As a forecasting tool it's nothing short of astonishing. Even so, we do not shroud socionomics in mystery like some secret sauce. If anything we see it as the family jewels, and we choose to share the treasure with anyone who understands its value.
"Share" is exactly what the cover article of the latest issue of The Socionomist does. The title is:
Do Try This at Home: How to Use Socionomics to Make Specific Social Forecasts
This how-to article presents a 2,400-word case study in the successful use of socionomics. The topic is the European Union and euro currency; the analysis and forecasts unfold across 15 years and include the work of three analysts (Bob Prechter, Peter Kendall, and Brian Whitmer).
The article really does equip you, as a reader, with an understanding of the socionomic insight, which in turn will help you apply it. Here are a few highlights:
- If it's a collective activity, look for social mood at work: From politics to finance to a huge range of social and cultural trends and beyond -- the patterns of social mood drive events that we humans participate in.
- See the bandwagon for what it is: The social mood that drives social events is an unconscious influence on people collectively -- yet as an individual, you can recognize and step out of that influence. In 1998, for example, this meant grasping that instead of "a new era," the European Union was actually "a setup for future conflict."
- Extremes presage reversals: The dominant trend in social mood can unfold over years, even decades; yet certain especially visible and extreme events "are key to calling dramatic reversals in social mood."
- Powers-that-be can't change the dominant trend: Oceans of ink and millions of hours of air time from talking heads has been wasted on the futile notion that politicians and policymakers should attempt to control or change "the waves of mood in society." Socionomics is the alternative to this folly.
- "Social Polarities": It's a 35-point roadmap that will help you see socionomics at work in the world. These pairs identify which tendencies "society tends to express to a degree commensurate with the extremity of positive or negative social mood."
As if that weren't enough, also consider what more you'll discover in the current Socionomist:
Paternalism in Washington: One Big, Happy Federal Family?
"Federal Family" -- those are their words, not ours. And if you've heard that phrase lately, well, you're not alone. We've done the research and present to show that as consumer confidence goes down and the number of people in poverty goes up, "Federal Family" is exactly how Washington, DC wants you to think about "your" government.
But Alan Hall considers whether "Federal Family" is best translated "Authoritarianism masked as Paternalism."
Tiger Woods - "Front man for a bull market game"?
Can an entire sport -- and that sport's biggest superstar -- actually rise and fall in synch with the trend in social mood?
When it comes to the sport of golf, Bob Prechter answered this question 15 years ago. As for golf's biggest superstar, writer Gary Grimes offers the bull's-eye answer in his January 2010 Socionomist article about Tiger Woods. Now discover why the past two years have only made our "heroes" and "sports" forecasts more relevant than ever.
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