By Bob Stokes
5/17/2012 5:30:00 PM
To this day, I wonder why Robert Prechter's book Conquer the Crash has not been more widely recognized. It described in advance much of what happened in the 2008 financial crisis. Learn what Prechter is saying now...
Filed Under: banks, Bob Prechter, conquer the crash, debt crisis, debt downgrade, deflation, economic depression, Elliott Wave Theorist, Greek debt, market crash, market forecasts
Category: U.S. Economy
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/15/2012 9:15:00 PM
Today, EUR/USD, the exchange rate between the euro and U.S. dollar -- and also the world's most-traded forex market -- fell to near $1.27, a low not seen since January. Just two weeks ago, it stood almost 600 points (or pips, in forex lingo) higher. What if someone asked you back in April -- before this month's news from Europe -- where the euro would trade in May? For many forex traders, the answer would be...
Filed Under: debt crisis, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, europe, European debt crisis, forex, forex trading, Greek debt, online trading, sentiment, technical analysis, technical indicators, U.S. dollar
Category: Currencies
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/2/2012 2:00:00 PM
This is Part II of my interview with EWI's Mark Galasiewski, a monthly contributor to the "Asian-Pacific Stocks Section" of our Global Market Perspective -- a comprehensive, 50-page monthly publication for global investors. -- Mark, you use Elliott wave analysis as your chosen forecasting method. Why Elliott? Why not just watch the news like most investors do? -- Mark Galasiewski: Well, the example I already showed you...
Filed Under: Asia Dollar Index, Asian-Pacific Short Term Update, ASX All Ordinaries, Bank of Japan, diversification, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, Greek debt, Indian markets, Indian Rupee, investment strategy, Korean Won, Nikkei, risk management, SENSEX, Shanghai Composite Index, Singapore Dollar, Taiwan index, technical analysis
Category: Global Markets
By Bob Stokes
4/27/2012 4:00:00 PM
Shortly after the fourteenth European debt crisis summit concluded and there was an "extraordinary shift from negativity to optimism," the November 2011 Global Market Perspective flatly said "The current level of unpayable debt is too big to bail." Yet financial journalists and many of the economists they interview have been busy talking about rising markets and recovering economies. Some were even saying that Europe's debt crisis was "under control." It seems not...
Filed Under: debt downgrade, European debt crisis, european markets, European Union (EU), eurozone, Greek debt, International Monetary Fund (IMF), Short Term Update, soverign debt crisis
Category: European Markets
By Nico Isaac
3/30/2012 6:30:00 PM
Let's hear it for European equities. The major stock markets across the pond saw their best first-quarter winning streak since 2006. And while many experts are waiting to see how the markets deal with Europe's austerity measures -- the April 2012 European Financial Forecast lets the cat out the bag: "European Stocks Have Already Signaled" their next move. Take note, because this is what it feels like to watch history in the making.
Filed Under: AEX, banks, CAC40, DAX, debt, diversification, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, eu, euro, euro stoxx 50, europe, european central bank, European debt crisis, european markets, European Union (EU), eurozone, FTSE, Greek debt, inflation, Swiss Market Index (SMI)
Category: European Markets
EUR/USD: Why You Should Be Wary of "Fundamentals"
A quick look at the recent history of the euro-dollar exchange rate and its "fundamental" background
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
3/14/2012 6:00:00 PM
Please see if you can guess when these 4 forex-related headlines were published (all from major news sources). As you've probably guessed, it's a trick question...
Filed Under: Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, european central bank, European debt crisis, forex, forex trading, fundamental analysis, Greek debt, trading lessons, U.S. dollar
Category: Currencies
By Nathaniel Williams
3/9/2012 12:30:00 PM
News drives the stock market, according to the mainstream financial media. So it's no surprise that before the latest Greek debt deal was finalized, Fox News published an article whose headline proclaimed, "If a Greek Deal Gets Done, Markets Will Celebrate."
But here's the problem with that headline: Greek markets celebrated before the debt deal.
Filed Under: european markets, Greek debt
Category: European Markets
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
3/4/2012 11:45:00 AM
When you look at a long-term chart of Europe's four main stock indexes --- the DAX, FTSE-100, CAC-40 and EuroStoxx 50 -- you notice one striking detail: Since at least 2000, every prolonged stock market rally turned out to be a set-up for another devastating crash. This fact is obvious when you glance at the opening chart of EWI's new, March 2012 European Financial Forecast. Of course, European stocks have rallied strongly off their 2009 lows, too. What should you make of this?
Filed Under: AEX, Bank of England, debt crisis, debt downgrade, economic depression, Elliott wave, euro, euro stoxx 50, europe, european central bank, European debt crisis, european markets, European Union (EU), eurozone, Greek debt, investment decisions, Swiss Market Index (SMI), technical analysis, technical indicators
Category: European Markets
A 13-Year Trend Channel Line In Gold Sends A Clear Message
Our February Elliott Wave Finanical Forecast presents a compelling chart of a channel line in gold that goes back to 1999.
By Nico Isaac
2/28/2012 4:00:00 PM
Hedge funds love it. Housewives love it. And now, pooch hounds love it. On February 26, the world's fascination with gold reached unchartered "terrier"-tory when the scene-stealing Uggie the Jack Russell dog from "The Artist" sported an 18-carat gold bone-shaped tag to the 84th Academy Awards. So, as demand for gold continues to soar, the question is: Will gold prices do the same?
Filed Under: bailouts, bull market, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, europe, European debt crisis, financial forecast, fundamental analysis, Gold, Greek debt, precious metals
Category: Gold and Silver
"DEMANDING" A Clear Outlook for Crude Oil
EWI's Energy Specialty Service presents a compelling Elliott wave case for oil's near-term trend
By Nico Isaac
2/23/2012 11:00:00 AM
Trying to follow the recent news stories regarding the powerful rise in crude oil prices is like chasing after a straw hat on a windy sea shore. First the headlines blow the story in one direction, only to suddenly shift to an opposite course. "Fundamental" arguments can often make a difficult situation even more difficult. What was the "factor du jour" one minute ends up being "shrugged off" by the markets the next. Elliott wave analysis, on the other hand, can give you some objectivity in your analysis.
Filed Under: crude oil, Elliott wave, fundamental analysis, Greek debt, U.S. dollar, Elliott Wave trading
Category: Energy
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
2/22/2012 2:00:00 PM
The February 21 agreement to bail out Greece came and went -- and investors are left wondering. Many think they need to weigh all the possible effects (good and bad) which this new development may have on the stock market. These headlines capture the uncertainty...
Filed Under: Bear market, bull market, European debt crisis, European Union (EU), Greek debt, S&P 500, social mood
Category: Stocks
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
2/16/2012 4:30:00 PM
On February 16, EUR/USD, the euro-dollar exchange rate and the most actively traded forex pair, surged over 170 pips, from below $1.30 to above $1.3150. The explanations for the strong rally boiled down to "hopes" that the Greek bond-swap deal would be reached. But as we've pointed out before, explanations such as these make sense only in retrospect.
Filed Under: Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, forex, forex trading, Greek debt, technical analysis, technical indicators, U.S. dollar
Category: Currencies
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
2/10/2012 6:15:00 PM
This is what a chart of the S&P 500 looks like this week (Feb. 6-10)" ... If you saw this chart on Thursday (Feb. 9), would there have been anything to give you a clue that Friday's vertical drop would erase most of the week's gains?
Filed Under: Elliott wave, European debt crisis, Greek debt, Nasdaq Composite, Robert Prechter, S&P 500, stock indexes, technical analysis, technical indicators
Category: Stocks
Forex Insight: EURUSD Pushes Higher, But for How Long?
Where will the euro go on February 9? How about on the 10th, or the day after? The latest European "fundamentals" can’t really help you with that
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
2/8/2012 5:15:00 PM
"NEW YORK -- The euro moved toward a two-month high as news reports challenged hopes that the European Central Bank may be the clinch to an agreement on a second bailout for Greece." (Feb. 8, Wall Street Journal) Great. Now that you know why EURUSD moved higher on February 8, where will it go on February 9? How about on the 10th? The "fundamentals" can’t really help you with that.
Filed Under: Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, European debt crisis, eurozone, forex, forex trading, Greek debt, technical analysis, technical indicators, trading lessons, U.S. dollar
Category: Currencies
Greek Stocks Surge 21%: How to Be Prepared for the Next "Surprise" out of Greece
Elliott Wave International's European Short Term Update explains why the latest rally in Greece's FT-ASE was a predictable event -- without the news or "fundamentals."
By Nathaniel Williams
2/2/2012 12:00:00 PM
Here at EWI, our analysts don't forecast based on the whims of the financial news or "fundamentals", because we know from observing market behavior for over 30 years that news and events are not the markets' driving force. Instead, we study price chart patterns -- a method we've found much more reliable at predicting trend changes. Let me show you an example using the latest stock rally in Greece.
Filed Under: bailouts, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, europe, European debt crisis, european markets, European Union (EU), eurozone, Greek debt
Category: European Markets
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
1/23/2012 11:00:00 PM
The U.S. dollar sold off strongly in the forex markets on January 23, pushing EUR/USD, the euro-dollar exchange rate, as high as $1.3047 in the process. While the "fundamental" picture for the euro remains murky (continued Greek debt negotiations being the latest factor under the microscope) from an Elliott wave perspective, the trend in EUR/USD is much more definable, at least in the short term
Filed Under: Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, eurozone, forex, forex trading, Greek debt, U.S. dollar
Category: Currencies
By Paul DeBoer
12/2/2011 2:00:00 PM
How many European bankers does it take to change a light bulb? That's a joke in search of an answer, but EWI's European analyst Brian Whitmer explained five months ago that the "light bulb moment" was coming -- that’s the time when most people would clearly recognize the severity of the European debt crisis. He offered this spot-on analysis back in July 2011, before the larger world came to know recently how bad things really are in the eurozone.
Filed Under: european central bank, European debt crisis, european markets, European Union (EU), eurozone, Greek debt
Category: European Markets
By Alexandra Lienhard
11/16/2011 1:00:00 PM
Enjoy this 16-minute long interview with EWI's European Financial Forecast editor, Brian Whitmer.
Filed Under: eurozone, eu, soverign debt crisis, europe, brian whitmer, Greek debt, interview, Club EWI
Category: European Markets
The Hidden Risk on a “Hedged Position”
How the International Swaps Dealer Association crippled the sovereign bond credit default swaps market -- and why that matters to you
By Jason Farkas
11/10/2011 2:00:00 PM
Jefferies & Co, Inc. just announced that they have reduced their holdings of European sovereign debt by $2.2 billion. But just last week -- and for months prior – many holders of European debt declared themselves to be “hedged” against any risks via credit default swaps (CDS). Here's what might be happening...
Filed Under: debt crisis, debt downgrade, derivatives, European debt crisis, European Union (EU), eurozone, Greek debt
Category: European Markets
By Bob Stokes
11/8/2011 5:30:00 PM
The latest Financial Forecast states: "While Europe is the epicenter of the credit crisis, the situation in the U.S. is hurtling toward the same type of abyss..." The recently published issue goes on to reveal the thought-provoking analysis behind that statement...
Filed Under: conquer the crash, credit crisis, credit rating, debt crisis, debt downgrade, Greek debt, soverign debt crisis
Category: U.S. Economy