Strange Recovery
Is it strange in here, or is it just...strange?
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/1/2012 4:00:00 PM
Something doesn't feel right. Look at this:
Filed Under: Bob Prechter, consumer confidence, earnings, Elliott wave, home sales, Robert Prechter, S&P 500, social mood, unemployment
Category: U.S. Economy
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
4/9/2012 5:30:00 PM
Stocks fell lower as this week began, and observers in unison blamed last Friday's weak U.S. jobs report. Don't fall for this argument. All you need is one look at this DJIA chart over the past week to see what's really going on.
Filed Under: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, unemployment
Category: Stocks
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
4/3/2012 2:30:00 PM
Here's a paradox for you. On Monday (April 2), unemployment in the 17 euro nations reached a record high of 10.8% -- highest ever since the euro was introduced in 1999. Reports say eurozone manufacturing activity had fallen to a 3-month low. The words "Eurozone recession" are being muttered. Meanwhile, the latest U.S. employment and manufacturing reports have been strong. You'd think the euro would be crushed -- but no. Why?
Filed Under: Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, eu, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, European Union (EU), eurozone, forex, forex trading, technical analysis, technical indicators, trading lessons, U.S. dollar, unemployment
Category: Currencies
Want to Know Who’s Going to Be President? Ask the Stock Market
A recently-published, landmark research paper shows the link between stock market performance and presidential election winners.
By Robert Folsom
2/13/2012 6:30:00 PM
What's the biggest influence on the outcome of presidential elections? Yet if you want an answer backed by a large body of evidence, you'll find one in the recently-published, landmark research paper by Robert Prechter, Deepak Goel, Wayne Parker and Matthew Lampert, titled "Social Mood, Stock Market Performance and US Presidential Elections."
Filed Under: Barack Obama, Robert Prechter, U.S. STOCK MARKET, unemployment
Category: Socionomics
By Bob Stokes
2/7/2012 5:00:00 PM
Take note: there's an eerie similarity between what is developing economically today and what happened from 1929-1933...
Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, Ben Bernanke, deflation, economic depression, financial forecast, unemployment
Category: U.S. Economy
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
1/25/2012 5:45:00 PM
On January 25, Ben Bernanke spoke no surprises: The Fed's interest rate policy will be unchanged for another two years. Question: What does this mean for the stock market through 2014? Let me show you how quickly you can get lost if you try to answer this question using "fundamental" analysis.
Filed Under: Ben Bernanke, Bernanke, Bob Prechter, djia, Elliott wave, Interest Rates, market forecasts, prechter, S&P 500, technical analysis, technical indicators, unemployment
Category: Stocks
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
1/3/2012 6:30:00 PM
You can probably relate: Every year, come January 1, I just can't help but feel that "every little thing is gonna be all right," as Bob Marley sang. This year, the mainstream financial community is sharing the same sentiment. Here's how our own December 30 Short Term Update summarized it...
Filed Under: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), market forecasts, Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, sentiment, unemployment
Category: U.S. Economy
By Bob Stokes
12/5/2011 5:00:00 PM
Economic reports will not help you identify market turning points. The market's Elliott wave structure will. The price pattern we see reveals a stock market trend which most investors do not expect...
Filed Under: Elliott wave, Elliott Wave Theorist, housing prices, market forecasts, Robert Prechter, unemployment
Category: Stocks
By Bob Stokes
8/19/2011 6:00:00 PM
"...because the current bear market is of one larger degree than that of 1929-1932, the depression it creates will be deeper, which in turn means that the unemployment rate will exceed that of 1933. The peak rate in 1933 was 25 percent. Therefore, unemployment in the U.S. should rise to about..." Read the rest of this quote from the second edition of Conquer the Crash now...
Filed Under: conquer the crash, economic depression, great depression, Robert Prechter, unemployment
Category: U.S. Economy
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
8/3/2011 5:30:00 PM
On August 3, the DJIA opened higher. The financial news media quickly explained why: "Stocks gained at the open Wednesday...after a reading on private sector employment came in stronger than expected." That makes sense, doesn't it? U.S. employment situation brightened, so stocks went up. Except that, minutes later, the Dow reversed and fell.
Filed Under: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott Wave trading, Nasdaq Composite, New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), technical analysis, technical indicators, unemployment
Category: Stocks
By Bob Stokes
7/5/2011 5:30:00 PM
States and cities took on large obligations when economic times were good, on the assumption that they'd have enough revenue to pay those bills in the future. But now many of those bills are due and they don't have the funds. The economy went south. To extrapolate the present into the future is unwise because trends change. You need the best method for anticipating major trend changes.We believe that best method is...
Filed Under: credit crisis, deficit, economic depression, municipal bonds, unemployment
Category: U.S. Economy
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
6/10/2011 5:30:00 PM
As of June 10, the Dow has suffered the "longest losing streak since the fall of 2002," reports The Associated Press. As for why stocks are falling, most observers agree: Blame "weaker hiring, industrial output, and a moribund housing market." The economic reports from the past two weeks made that clear. But wait a minute. The DJIA didn't top in the past two weeks -- it topped on April 29!
Filed Under: Bear market, Ben Bernanke, bull market, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), economic depression, Elliott wave, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, stimulus package, unemployment
Category: Stocks
Money in the Bank: Does It Still Mean "Safe and Sound?"
Elliott Wave International's free report "Discover the Top 100 Safest U.S. Banks" explains the true risk that you may face when a bank fails.
By Hope Welborn
6/8/2011 3:15:00 PM
Some economists claim we're in a recovery, yet hundreds of smaller financial institutions still suffer from the debt crisis that began a few years back.
Filed Under: Robert Prechter, central banks, Club EWI, conquer the crash, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), foreclosures, housing prices, liquidity, personal finance, recession, unemployment
Category: Classic Prechter
Earnings Data: Benchmark in Sheep's Clothing
A stunning chart from Bob Prechter's April Theorist shows how earnings data is not a benchmark at all
By Nico Isaac
5/16/2011 6:00:00 PM
In the rough seas of financial forecasting, the mainstream "captains" have always relied on certain time-honored tools for navigation: Breaking news, GDP figures, political scandals, weather patterns, and so on. But of all the measurements, there is one gauge widely considered to be the "North Star" of financial prognostication -- that ever-fixed mark in the economic sky that always points to the "true" future performance of major stock averages. And that gauge is earnings.
Filed Under: Robert Prechter, earnings, Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), Elliott Wave Theorist, gross domestic product (GDP), Robert Prechter, unemployment
Category: Stocks
Current Echoes of the Old Mania
EWI's May Financial Forecast reveals whether these familiar notes are the sounds of a new bull market
By Nico Isaac
5/11/2011 12:15:00 PM
In the decade leading to the end of the Great Asset Mania in 2007, a rising tide of credit expansion drove many major financial market trends in remarkable harmony. Yet in 2009 this correlation seemed to diverge: stocks, precious metals, and oil moved contra-cyclically. But today, the trend in those markets is aligned once again.
Filed Under: bull market, credit crisis, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), gold futures, mania, market forecasts, mutual funds, New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), silver, U.S. dollar, U.S. Treasuries, unemployment, Wall Street
Category: Stocks
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/4/2011 5:30:00 PM
Please read these financial news headlines and then take a guess as to when they were published...
Filed Under: bull market, buy and hold, credit crisis, Elliott wave, housing prices, International Monetary Fund (IMF), nonfarm payrolls, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed), U.S. Treasuries, unemployment
Category: Stocks
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
3/3/2011 3:30:00 PM
A slew of positive U.S. economic reports hit the morning newswires on March 3. If most investors had to forecast which way the U.S. dollar would move after news like that, you'd probably think, “Up!” -- right? Right. Yet the USD declined on March 3. Here's what we think happened.
Filed Under: Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, european central bank, eurozone, forex trading, online trading, technical analysis, U.S. dollar, unemployment
Category: Currencies
Forex: Don't Rush to Bury The U.S. Dollar
When the media gets absolutely convinced the U.S. dollar is "history," it rebounds -- and surprises everybody
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
1/24/2011 3:00:00 PM
Financial markets -- i.e., investors -- have a short memory. For example: At Elliott Wave International, we have pointed out time and again that when market sentiment reaches a bullish or bearish extreme, chances are that a trend change is near. Yet time and again, almost everyone forgets this. Here's a fresh example. In June 2010, the U.S. dollar began a losing streak against its forex competitors...
Filed Under: Campaign for Independent Thinking, deficit, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, European Union (EU), forex trading, online trading, quantitative easing, U.S. dollar, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed), unemployment
Category: Currencies
Robert Prechter Dispels 10 Popular Investment Myths: Conclusion
Interest rates, oil prices, trade balance, earnings, GDP, wars, terrorist attacks, inflation, monetary policy, fiscal policy, etc. -- NONE have a reliable effect on the stock market
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
1/10/2011 12:30:00 PM
This is the conclusion of the series "Robert Prechter Dispels 10 Popular Investment Myths," where EWI president explains why traditional financial models failed in 2007-2009 -- and why they are doomed to fail again (and again). Missed this important series? Start with Part I now.
Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, Ben Bernanke, bull market, crude oil, deficit, earnings, economic depression, great depression, inflation, market crash, monetary policy, terrorist attacks, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed), unemployment
Category: Stocks
Robert Prechter Dispels 10 Popular Investment Myths, Part I
After the grand failure of modern financial theory in 2007-2009, a better one is proposed by the world's foremost Elliott wave analysis practitioner
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
12/3/2010 11:00:00 AM
You may remember that in 2008-2009, as the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression was ravaging stocks, real estate and commodities, many called into question traditional economic models -- because they did little to warn us of the approaching doomsday. So, today, we are starting a new series: "Robert Prechter Dispels 10 Popular Investment Myths," where EWI president gives detailed explanation of why the traditional financial models failed -- and, very importantly, why they are doomed to fail again (and again). Here is Part I...
Filed Under: earnings, Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), Elliott Wave Principle, Random Walk Theory, Robert Prechter, socionomics, technical analysis, unemployment
Category: Stocks